Future of computing

Demand creates invention -- Hunter Lloyd
What I mean by that is if something is needed in today's society somebody will invent it.

The future is a funny thing.  We pretend we know all about it and yet it continues to fool us every chance it gets.  As I wrote this lecture I looked back on some of the notes I used just two or three years ago.  Many of the wild predictions I made back then fell flat on my face.  But, thankfully, some of them are coming true.

I like this lecture the most because it gives us a chance to look into the future of our lives.  Lots of times, as we go about our busy lives, we don't notice subtle changes in our environment.  Suddenly, that old dilapidated building that you used to pass by on your way to work is gone.  You wonder to yourself when it fell down.   Was it yesterday or a week ago.  Things happen so fast sometimes, yet take years.

Some of the information in this lecture is all speculation.  Some of it is happening right under our noses, and parts of it is somebody's pipe dream.  You decide which is which.  Whatever way you choose to look at it though, many of the changes will affect the very essence of your life.  How do you feel about cybercash? Are you in favor of WebTV and NetPCs? How do you think the software revolution will affect you?

Background

The computer revolution and evolution has been marked by industry kings throughout its different periods. IBM was king in the 60s with mainframes but they've slid down the totem pole in the PC game. Digital Corporation and a few others took over with the minicomputer in the 70s. Digital who?

As we're all familiar with, Microsoft was king in the 80s with PCs and the software revolution. And Intel Corporation has dominated the hardware side. The question now is "Who will be the king of the 90s." Interestingly no one company has really emerged in this decade as the absolute leader. To be sure, Microsoft has continued its "leader" status. But others, mainly companies involved in Internet products, have been slowly chipping away at their stranglehold.

"We're in a business where no amount of success guarantees future success" -Gates

ASIMO

Before we get into too many details I will start with a concept we've all seen on the Movies that has now become a reality.
Honda has created a robot that is almost human. For one small example it can open the door to your house and if the person at the door has been seen by the robot before the robot will recognize the person. Greet the person by name. So if you were nervous about meeting your boyfriend/girlfriends dad, just think what it will feel like to meet their robot.
Here is a link to Honda's Web page on ASIMO

Software Revolution

Computers will function as multimedia communications devices instead of glorified calculators and typewriters - Business Week - 1995
And of course today in 2002, besides calculating and typing, computers main function is multimedia.
Software today -

For the last fifteen years or so you've been locked into the "Wintel" standard of personal computing. That is Windows software and Intel microprocessing chips. Microsoft Corporation controls about 85-90% of the market for word processing, spreadsheet, and database software. They also have their operating system installed on 95 % of the personal computers (IBM compatibles) sold in the world. But they only have about 40-50% of the Internet software market.

Until 1997 Intel Corporation controled approximately 87 % of the market for microprocessing chips.   In the last few years, AMD and Cyrix have been slowly "chipping" (pun intended) away at Intel's market dominance with cheaper and just -as-good microprocessor chips.  Now Intel's market dominance has been reduced to around 50%.  A significant slide if you ask me!  Many of the other companies involved in personal computing would love to break the rest of the Wintel chokehold. Hence, this is part of the reason the Microsoft Anti-Trust suits started being fought in 1999, and are still being fought today.

Nowadays, you have to purchase "bloatware," huge software programs of which you'll probably only use about 20% of the features. Nevertheless, you have to purchase and install the entire software program.

Software in the future

There's a newer, better, faster, cheaper, and easier way emerging to resolve and reduce the hassle of obtaining software. The Internet! You can now jump on the Internet, go to the Web site of the software producer, make a few clicks, and within minutes the software is downloaded and installed on your computer.  Many of you did just that at the beginning of the semester when you downloaded and installed Eudora Lite Email software.   If the software manufacturer finds a bug in the software, they put a fix on their Web site and within a short time you have access to the coding to fix your problem. No more waiting, and waiting, and waiting.  I did just that a few weeks ago with Netscape Navigator.

The software companies can save you lots of money because they don't have to put the programs in fancy packages, ship it out, beg the retailers to put it on their shelves, and pay all the extra costs of the old way of doing business. Many software manufacturers are now bypassing the old "food chain" altogether and only putting their software on the Internet. The savings are passed on to the customer with cheaper prices.

Obtaining software is becoming more like buying magazines or books. Think about how you buy magazines now.  You may subscribe to a magazine, in which case you get it delivered right to your home, on a regularly scheduled basis - weekly or monthly.   You enjoy the continuity of the articles and/or a particular columnist.   Sometimes though you see a single issue of a magazine in the bookstore or grocery.   You see an article headline on the front cover that entices you to buy that single issue.  You don't want a long term subscription - just that one issue.  So you buy just that one issue, read the article, throw the magazine away, and you're happy.

The evolution taking place in the software industry is similar to that of magazines.   Take out a subscription for a software package and you'll get the entire initial program and any updates that may come out in the future on a regular schedule.  This particular program happens to be one that you use a lot and want to stay on top of any upgrades or code fixes.

You could also buy a program on a one time basis, use it for whatever you want, and then discard it. No more bloatware. Buy only those parts that you need and forget the rest. Saves lots of disk space!

Many excellent software programs are virtually locked out of the marketplace because the producers can't afford the initial costs of producing thousands of copies, packaging, shipping, and advertising.  With the Internet much of those costs are overcome.   The producers don't need to have all the fancy packaging, fight for shelf space which is usually dominated by one or two companies (guess who that might be!), pay for shipping, etc.  They can advertise with the best of them, include a Web site URL, and if you want the software you merely go to the Web site and download the program.

This scenario is just beginning to take hold in the industry and is due in large part to being able to download software and upgrades across the Internet.

Also, the Internet's communication standards make it possible for tens of millions of people using different operating systems and applications to talk to each other regardless of hardware, software, or operating systems.

Now, what about the Wintel barrier?

With minimal barriers to entry, the Internet offers a software world where no one has seized control and where entrepreneurs can reach out to new customers without going through Microsoft or any other aspiring gatekeeper.
A great site to download free and trial software is:
Downloads.com


There are three types of software that can be downloaded for free:

JAVA

Your future also involves the Java programming language created a few years ago by Sun Microsystems Inc. Java is an object oriented programming tool. That is, you use groups of generic coding assembled together to carry out a specific tasks. Some of the key attributes of Java and what makes it an exciting venture are that it's designed specifically for using on the Internet. It's hardware independent - no more unique programs for each type of computer. No more concerns about whether you're using a PC, a MAC, or what kind of operating system you have. Want a program? If it's written in Java then just go get it.

Java is also "Applet" based. If all you want to do is a few simple calculations to figure out a car loan then just download that applet and forget the rest. Applets are Java programs that are embedded in Web pages. In order for you to run a Java Applet you just have to have a browser that interprets Applets. The only browsers made in the last three years that I have found that have trouble running applets are on Apple computers, but they have fixed it lately.

Overall, Java is a new programming language that is hardware independent, designed specifically for networked computers, and can help make computing interactive.
For a sample of Java go to  http://java.sun.com

Java isn't just for computers either.  According to Business Week magazine, July 27, 98, here are some other uses being developed:

Internet connections

The telephone lines used to transmit much of the data between networked computers simply wasn't built for that purpose.  The telephone network that we have was built to carry voices not pictures or videos.  Special types of equipment from modems to data switches have been invented over the years to accommodate data transmissions on the telephone lines.   The lines are simply getting maxed out. That is why we have many new technologies for Internet connections. Most of these technologies we will go over in the Network lectures, but here is an overview of some:. 

Bandwidth is the amount of data a transmission medium (like a phone line) can carry. Today Bandwidth is the number one problem with the Internet. Most experts say Bandwidth problems will be solved in the next year somehow.

WebTV

WebTV® gets you connected. Send email to friends and family, surf the Internet, and interact with new forms of entertainment—all from your TV. It's basically a "set-top" box similar to a cable box you attach to your TV.  It doesn't have the capacity to store very much information or be used in ways that a typical computer is used. You can purchase add-ons such as a keyboard, printer, or additional memory if you'd like.

Bill Gates is interested in this device. So interested he bought the company in 1997.   He has BIG plans for your television viewing! With the cost of PC's going down since 1997 the WebTv has dropped in popularity.

Digital Subscriber Lines

Fast connections that are dedicated for Internet service. They use your normal phone line and make it a broadband connection. To picture the advatange of a broadband connection picture a paper cup full of water. Poke a hole in the bottom with a pencil, the water starts to flow out, that would be like your normal phone connection. Now poke ten to twenty holes in the bottom of the cup, the water will start flowing out of all the holes, that would be like your broadband connection. the data is divided over several channels (or holes) and then sent all at once. 

Satelite

The satelite will cost $399, + mandatory professional installation for $199. The monthly fee will be $69.99. Very expensive, but it is fa st.

Line of site

Radio frequencies,  Cost in Bozeman is about $200 for the equipment and $50 a month for the service. GlobalNet provides the service in Bozeman, but I haven't heard real good news about their service. It is good for people that live too far for DSL, but still have line of site on their towers.
 

FUTURE OF HARDWARE

Just as the software industry is undergoing vast changes, so too is the hardware.
 
 

Internet 2 (I2)Another effort is underway between universities, the government, and industry that is less ambitious than NGI but nonetheless as enticing.  The specific goal of I2 is to advanced the use of multimedia Internet services.
Montana State is a I2 site now. We have a direct connection that links MSU with the Backbone in Denver. If you ask for a request from another I2 site your request goes through Denver instead of Spokane like normal Internet traffic usually flows.

I would like to now state where I think computers will be going in the next couple of years. There are some test questions in this part, so hopefully you read down this far.

Computers will control the home

Some day real soon your computer will answer your phone. I have an answering machine on my computer with caller ID, but this is different. You will be able to call your computer to turn on your oven, or dryer. Your computer will control your smart appliances and everything else in your home.
A smart appliance will be able to communicate with your computer through a network that links your whole house. This opens a lot of possibilities, say your milk is almost gone, if your refrigerator can sense this, then it can flag your computer and the computer will add milk to your grocery list, or better yet contact the server at the grocery store and order the milk for you.
With smart appliances you can call your computer from work and have your computer turn on your oven thirty minutes before going home so your food is ready when you get home. Many people ask me why I'm not married, I say I'm waiting for smart appliances instead.

Another way PC's are going to become a bigger factor in the future is

Telecommuting

Is a work arrangement in which employees work away from a company's standard workplace but communicate with the office using computers and communications technology.

Studies have shown Telecommuting:

15 million people telecommute today and it's expected to double by the year 2010.

Education

Ten years from now college may not be at a specific time or place. All classes might be taught just like this one. I read an article from Febuary 1999 that said "Someday classes might be taught over the Internet". I'm a trend setter, on the edge of discovery, if I had a tattoo I'd probably be on MTV.

The library is probably going to be impacted the greatest by computers. Many books and documents will be turned into digital form. Eventually it might turn into one universal library for all educational facilities. I don't like this idea, when I was an undergrad the library is where I went to meet girls.

They have already come out with text book readers. You buy one reader about the size of a paperback and then your textbooks come in a disk format. The disk fits in the back of the reader and then pages show up on the screen which is the front of the reader. You can highlight, print, and do just about anything you do with the textbooks you have now except use it for toilet paper. On that note I'm done.
 

 E-COMMERCE

The world of electronic commerce is upon us. More commonly called e-commerce, buying, selling, over the Internet, is a new economic order. Even the word retail is evolving to etail. All companies worldwide are going to need to go to the Internet to survive. Local specialty stores aren't quite as unique because of the Internet.
The E-Corporation are becoming more and more frequent. A E-Corporation don't have a real store front, there only store front is their Internet site. 5% of people used the Internet every day in 1995, Today 35% use the Internet everyday and that number is expected to go up much higher over the next two years.

The advantages of E-Commerce to the consumer are so outstanding  that it is just a matter of time until many make the switch. The merchandise comes to you, it is much easier to find out information on a product before you buy, hunting for a bargain is much easier and faster, and there is no geographical boundaries. For all these reasons E-commerce is becoming more and more popular. Competition brings the prices down for the consumer, but the overhead of a E-Corporation is much lower so it's easier for E-corps to compete.
 
 

PDA's PDA (Personal Digital Assistants) are the Palm Pilots and hand-held computers.

WebTablets

There are several companies making these now they are small computers like the one above that have wireless Internet capabilities, you can set up a base station in your house and this little creature can go around your house and communicate with the base station through a wireless connection.

802.11

Wireless communication standard, this is how many of the new technologies are going to communicate. I think this technology will shape the world five years from now. You can have all the appliances communicate with radio waves in your home, no wires, no configuration by people, just automatic communication. For example, my latest 802.11 invention: Let's say the power goes out in your home, all your clocks are blinking, if they had 802.11 capabilities when your power comes back on your computer would just send the current time out by radio waves and all your clocks would automatically set themselves. This is one of about ten home ideas that I have come up with in the last year.

Biomimetics

Quantum Computing

Mass storage